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Foreign Policy Analysis
Keller @ Large: Reasons Behind Country’s Economic Uncertainty

Keller @ Large: Reasons Behind Country’s Economic Uncertainty


COMPARED TO 30,000 THIS YEAR AND 85,000 IN THE LAST YEAR OF THE OBAMA AND MENSTRUATION. IT IS TIME FOR KELLER AND LARGE, HERE’S JON KELLER. Reporter: GOOD MORNING, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. WHAT IS UP WITH OUR LOCAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMY WITH LABOR- MANAGEMENT RELATIONS AND WITH WALL STREET ANTIPATHY TO OUR VERY OWN SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN? LET’S TALK ABOUT AS MUCH OF THAT AS WE CAN GET TO THIS MORNING WITH OUR GUEST, PETER COHEN, A LECTURER ON STRATEGY AND ENTREPRENEURIAL SHIP AT BABSON COLLEGE AND AN AUTHOR MOST RECENTLY OF SCALING YOUR STARTUP, MASTERING THE FOUR STAGES FROM IDEA TO $10 BILLION. WELCOME. GOOD TO HAVE YOU. NICE TO BE HERE AGAIN. I’M ALMOST AT MY 10 BILLION. I WILL HAVE TO READ YOUR BOOK SO I CAN GET OVER THE HUMP. GET THE EXTRA 500 MILLION. ME I CAN GET SOME NEW SUITS. YOUR SUITS ARE GREAT. THANK YOU. SO HERE AT HOME AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY, MOST OF US HAVE BEEN ENJOYING A LONG PERIOD OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY, BUT IT FEELS LIKE THAT IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE. THE DASHBOARD LIGHTS ARE FLASHING HERE AND JUST LAST WEEK, WE LEARN THE ECONOMY GREW ONLY 1.9% IN THE THIRD QUARTER AND THAT IS THE SECOND WORST QUARTER OF THE TRUMP ERA IN BUSINESS INVESTMENT IS DOWN 3% IN THE SECOND STRAIGHT QUARTER OF DECLINE AND SO ON. WHAT IS GOING ON? THE TARIFFS. AND THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW IT WILL RESOLVE ITSELF. A LOT OF COMPANIES ARE DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA AND IT IS A HUGE MARKET. AND THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA IS CAUSING BUSINESSES TO SAY WAIT A MINUTE, THERE’S TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND I WILL CUT BACK ON INVESTMENT AND SOME OF THE LOCAL COMPANIES, FOR INSTANCE, THE COMPANY HAVE WRITTEN A LOT ABOUT IS CALLED IPG PHOTONICS LOCATED IN WORCHESTER COUNTY AND IT MAKES FIBER LASERS AND SINCE LAST YEAR, THEY, THE STOCK HAS LOST OVER HALF THE VALUE AS THE TARIFFS AND TRADE WAR HAS CUT INTO THE BUSINESS. THEY JUST REPORTED THE MOST RECENT RESULTS IN THE CHINESE REVENUES DOWN 30%. AREN’T THE U.S. AND CHINA ABOUT TO SIGN AT LEAST A PARTIAL AGREEMENT? I HAVE NO IDEA, THAT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW. I WOULD JUST ANECDOTALLY, I SAW THAT THE WASHINGTON POST DID A REPORT THAT EVERY DAY TRUMP HAS ON AVERAGE LIED 13 TIMES, SO WHO KNOWS WHAT IS TRUE? HOW BIG OF A DAMPER ON THE ECONOMY IS THE CREDIBILITY OR LACK OF IT IN THE WHITE HOUSE? WELL, IT DOES HAVE AN EFFECT ON BUSINESS DECISION-MAKING. THERE IS NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT. BUSINESSES DON’T LIKE UNCERTAINTY AND THEY CAN’T DECIDE, THEY DON’T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN. SO THEY ARE NOT DOING THINGS THAT THEY WOULD OTHERWISE DO IF THEY WERE CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN. IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS, IT’S THAT THE CONSUMER SPENDING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR TWO THIRDS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS GONE UP. BUT IT WENT UP FOR A HALF PERCENT IN THE PREVIOUS QUARTER AND ONLY UP 2.9% IN THIS QUARTER AND WITH TARIFFS ON THINGS LIKE I WAS LISTENING TO HOW PARMESAN CHEESE NOW HAS A BIG TARIFF ON IT. SO THE COST OF PARMESAN CHEESE WILL GO UP. NO ONE DISPUTES THE FACT THAT CHINA HAS BEEN A BAD ACTOR ON TRADE ISSUES AND MONETARY ISSUES, THE DEMOCRATS ARE VERY OUTSPOKEN ABOUT THEIR CRITICISM OF CHINA ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR. WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE TRUMP APPROACH TO CHINA OR IS IT THEIR FAULT AT ALL? I THINK THE BASIC PROBLEM IS THAT TRUMP HAS TO TRY TO GET REELECTED. WHERE AS THE PREMIER IN CHINA IS PREMIER FOR LIFE. SO HE DOESN’T HAVE ANY REASON TO CARE WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING. WHATEVER HE SAYS — SO THIS HARDBALL WITH

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