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Foreign Policy Analysis
Does Kim Jong Un’s latest statement signal he’s open to diplomacy?

Does Kim Jong Un’s latest statement signal he’s open to diplomacy?


HARI SREENIVASAN: Weeks of fiery rhetoric
and escalating threats over North Korea are showing signs of cooling, at least for the
day. In Washington, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
said the U.S. is interested in dialogue. And, in Pyongyang, the tone of Kim Jong-un’s
messages seem to maintain the same belligerent tone, but reading between the lines, analysts
believe his latest statements may also be trying to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. Special correspondent Nick Schifrin tries
to decode North Korea’s propaganda. NICK SCHIFRIN: In his military’s strategic
forces’ H.Q., a commander in chief studies his options. His generals reveal a plan to test-fire missiles
near the enemy’s strategically important base. The target is on the wall, the U.S.’ Andersen
Air Force Base in Guam. The narrator promises — quote — “enveloping
fire.” WOMAN (through translator): U.S. imperialists
put the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontations. NICK SCHIFRIN: That sounds ominous, but the
sentence continues: WOMAN (through translator): He added, he would
keep an eye on the foolish and stupid conduct of the Americans. ROBERT CARLIN, Former CIA and State Department
Intelligence Analyst: The signal that he’s dialing things back again. NICK SCHIFRIN: For 33 years, Robert Carlin
studied North Korea for the U.S. government. He visited the country more than 25 times,
and he says Kim might be signaling he wants a diplomatic path. ROBERT CARLIN: You can get distracted by language
which really isn’t important, and read right over what is significant, and how it’s supposed
to click together. Are we in a period like that now? I hope so. NICK SCHIFRIN: Often, the West focuses on
North Korea’s hyperbolic propaganda. Videos show North Korea preparing for war,
targeting the White House and being able to destroy the Capitol. Propaganda aimed at children depict kids destroying
a large-nosed U.S. soldier. Paintings in a Pyongyang museum depict a U.S.
soldier pulling out a North Korean woman’s tooth. Demonizing the U.S. helps an authoritarian
regime rally its population. It might those seem those rallies are preparations
for conflict. But on the streets of Pyongyang, there is
no crisis. So, despite all the rhetoric, North Korea
seems not to want war. ROBERT CARLIN: They didn’t go on alert. They didn’t mobilize the population. There’s a difference between policy and propaganda. NICK SCHIFRIN: Take the July 4 launch. Kim celebrated North Korea’s first ever launch
of an intercontinental ballistic missile. And in a statement, he said North Korea would
put — quote — “neither its nukes nor its rockets on the table for negotiations, unless
hostile U.S. policy was terminated.” ROBERT CARLIN: If you read that, it reads
like a negative. But it’s not a negative. It’s actually — if you know the history of
this stuff, it’s actually a positive, because it’s the first time that Kim has publicly
said, oh, incidentally, there is a possibility that these things would go on the table. NICK SCHIFRIN: That offer of negotiating its
rockets and nuclear program has been repeated multiple times since. And it’s exactly that offer that some North
Korea watchers consider a ruse. SUNG-YOON LEE, Tufts University: The latest
de-escalation, illusory as it may be, is a prelude to a provocation. NICK SCHIFRIN: Sung-Yoon Lee is an assistant
professor at Tufts University. He says North Korea acts over the top, so
when it seems to behave, it receives concessions. SUNG-YOON LEE: North Korea, in acting crazy,
or funny, even, bizarre, I think, achieves its strategic goal of getting the U.S. to
take North Korea lightly, go back to damage control diplomacy, for the sake of getting
North Korea out of the headlines for a few months. And all along, North Korea is able to advance
its nuclear and missile capabilities. NICK SCHIFRIN: And all along, as the U.S.
has been focusing on the military aspects, Kim has advanced North Korea’s economy. And that has helped solidify his hold on power. ROBERT CARLIN: Because, if you look at the
policies that he has followed since he came in, over the last six years, they are not
erratic, they are not crazy, and they are producing results. NICK SCHIFRIN: On organized and controlled
trips, the government shows off prosperous businesses like catfish farms. Kim Jong-un has liberalized the economy, so
owners of companies like this one can control their own profits. And the government also showed off a new luxury
shopping and housing district. North Koreans gawked at the Pyongyang’s tallest
buildings. A government official said this street was
more powerful than 100 nuclear warheads. ROBERT CARLIN: I hadn’t been there previously
for about seven years. I was flabbergasted at the change in Pyongyang,
the growth, the vitality of the city. NICK SCHIFRIN: Kim’s been called crazy. He is ruthless, but long-term North Korea
watchers see an economy that’s improved and messaging, even if exaggerated, that’s nuanced,
which means, despite what it may seem, there is method to North Korea’s madness. For the “PBS NewsHour,” I’m Nick Schifrin.

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